@tradingisprobability

The edge isn't
a secret.
It's probability.

Most traders lose because they chase certainty in a game that runs on odds. I help you trade what's possible, manage what's probable, and build on what's expected.

Follow on TikTok See the framework →
Probability Distribution — MES Trade
Stop Loss Entry Target
2.5R Risk/Reward
62% Win Rate
+0.91 Expectancy
The Trader Behind the Channel

19 years of engineering.
Applied to the markets.

I'm Lazare Lekadou — an electrical engineer turned futures trader based in Titusville, Florida. After nearly two decades building systems that had to work under pressure, I brought that same discipline to trading Micro E-mini S&P 500 (MES) and Micro Gold (MGC) futures.

Systems don't lie. When I started treating every trade as an experiment rather than a prediction, my results changed. That mindset is what Trading Is Probability is built on.

I trade live prop firm accounts through Tradeify and TopstepX, primarily targeting the Asian session. My content blends real trading psychology with the probabilistic framework that actually keeps me in the game.

MES Futures Micro Gold Prop Trading Trading Psychology Asian Session Pine Script
"Every trade is a probability event. Your job isn't to be right — it's to be on the right side of expectation."
— Lazare Lekadou, Trading Is Probability
The Core Framework

Possibility → Probability → Expectation

This is the lens everything runs through. Three words that separate reactive traders from systematic ones.

01 🔭

Possibility

The market can do anything on any given bar. Acknowledging this removes ego. You're not predicting — you're identifying what could happen, and how far price can realistically travel from your entry.

02 📊

Probability

Not all possibilities are equal. Market structure, session timing, zone confluence — they tilt the odds. Your setup is the filter that turns random noise into a repeatable edge. Trade where probability stacks.

03 ⚖️

Expectation

Expectancy is the math that keeps your account alive across hundreds of trades. A positive expectancy strategy can lose on any individual trade and still make money long-term. This is where psychology meets math.

@tradingisprobability

Content that trades hype for truth

No flashy Lamborghinis. No "I turned $100 into $1M" nonsense. Just real frameworks, real psychology, and the uncomfortable truths that actually move the needle for serious traders.

Watch on TikTok →
🧠

Trading Psychology

Why your mindset is the variable you control most. Deep dives on discipline, loss aversion, and staying systematic when it's hardest.

📐

Market Structure

How to read the 4H trend, identify 30M zones, and time 5M entries. Structure-first trading that reduces noise and sharpens execution.

🔢

The Math of Edges

Win rate, risk/reward, expectancy — broken down so clearly you'll never confuse activity with profitability again.

Connect

Let's talk probability.

Whether you're a developing trader looking for structure, or you want to work with me on trading psychology consulting — reach out.

TikTok @tradingisprobability
✉️
Email Consulting & collaboration inquiries

Trading Psychology Consulting

  • Framework audit — Is your process actually systematic, or do you just think it is?
  • Expectancy analysis — Build the math model that shows your true edge (or lack of one).
  • Discipline systems — Protocols that make good trading the path of least resistance.
  • 1:1 sessions — Direct, honest conversation about what's actually limiting your results.